Although it is common to look at economic data in 12-month increments, that is not valid in a rapidly changing market.  Due to the rapid drop in the inflation rate, economists have begun to look at quarterly trends.  This is more valid - as an example:  if gas cost $2 per gallon last year but was going up by $10 per gallon each month over the past quarter, you're interested in the current trend, not data from a year ago that will skew the numbers down in a meaningless way.  Inflation is the same way - a year ago it was about 9%, now it is annualized at about 1.9% annually based on the numbers for the last quarter.

So in summary:   GDP and job growth remain strong, inflation is way down, the deficit is down, recession fears have abated, wage growth remains strong and real wages (taking into account inflation) are back firmly in positive territory again.

News is rarely good by its very nature, but happily, we have good news today.

Post a Comment