The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight consecutive times in the past year to cool the economy. This, among other factors, has prompted economists and executives to predict a recession will hit sometime this year. The ax has already been swinging in Silicon Valley for a few months, while more layoffs have also been reported across the wider world of media, logistics and other fields.
Inflation Falling Rapidly
Core inflation has been easing rapidly in response to supply chain repair and the Fed Funds rate increase. It has fallen 3/10ths of a percent in each of the past 4 months.
Sadly these things are not linear, but if they were we would have inflation at the target rate of 2% by the beginning of next year. It is, of course due to the non-linear fashion of it all, possible that we hit that target sooner or later than that. It is, however, an indicator that the Fed will have to reverse direction sooner than expected and begin lowering interest rates so as not to overshoot their target or dip the economy into recession.
Previously, most economists predicted that a short and shallow recession would be inevitable, but many are predicting that the sought after "soft landing" which would avoid a recession is completely possible.
From the Washington Post 2/3/23: