PRICE PER FOOT INCREASE/DECLINE SINCE 2021 BY COUNTY

Sooooo....there's a lot of "ink" on the web about how prices in the Bay Area are moving.  And they are.

It's important to note here that there is only one real gauge that is of much use in looking at price trends in real estate: the per square foot move.  The median price, which is much easier to determine and is used by local news organizations, is less meaningful.  The reason is simple:  very expensive homes often have down payments that are funded by stock sales.  Most savvy investors do not sell stock in a down market, thus higher end home sales decline (thus adjusting the median price).  As well, in higher interest rate environments, lower end home sales also falter (again adjusting the median).  The best constant gauge is the price per foot being paid.

Here, then, are the median prices per foot paid in each county in the Bay Area as of November 2022.  It is important to note this indicates the year over year change in price using a 3 month rolling average.

SF went down the most due to out-migration from the pandemic - and the winners are clearly Marin, Napa, and Sonoma.  These communities benefitted from the out-migration.  This will shift again as interest rates begin to decline and more businesses realize they would rather have more workforce in the office than previously estimated.